Quotes of the Day

It may not seem like it in the pedestrian-choked streets of Tokyo, but Japan is about to get a lot less crowded. Thanks to a fertility rate that's dropped to 1.25 children per woman—well below the 2.1 needed to keep a population stable—the number of Japanese is set to peak next year and then fall rapidly to 64 million, or half the current population, by 2100. It's not just about elbow room: fewer babies mean fewer young, productive workers to keep Japan's economy afloat, while the proportional increase in the elderly population will severely strain social services. So politicians were as happy as new fathers last week when the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare reported that the number of Japanese births rose by 2.2% from January to June—the first uptick in six years.

Don't break out the cigars yet. Demographers say many of these new mothers are the thirtysomething daughters of Japan's postwar baby boomers, belatedly settling down to marry and have kids now that the economy has finally revived. Their late start means they're unlikely to produce the large broods Japan needs. Ryuichi Kaneko, a researcher at the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, says there's no escaping this demographic dearth: "We have a small number of young people now, so even if each woman has a slightly greater number of children than before, there wouldn't be much change." If he's right, Japan's population plunge will be impossible to turn around.

• Bryan Walsh
• Despite an uptick in the birthrate, the country is still heading for demographic disaster